GATE DA 2026 Set 1 — Question 57
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Probability & Statistics → Probability → Bayes' Theorem
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Question
A clinic specializes in testing for a disease D. The result of the test can be either positive or negative.A study revealed that if a person suffers from the disease D, the test result in that clinic comes out positive 80% of the time, and negative 20% of the time. If a person is not suffering from the disease D, the test comes out positive 10% of the time and negative 90% of the time. It is also known that among the general population, the disease D occurs in 30% of the individuals.If a person tests positive for D in that clinic, the probability that he/she actually suffers from the disease D is __________ . (Rounded off to two decimal places)
Correct answer
0.76 to 0.78
Solution
Let be the event that a person has the disease.
Let be the event that the test result is positive.Given probabilities:
Let be the event that the test result is positive.Given probabilities:
- (Prevalence of disease)
- (Probability of not having disease)
- (True Positive Rate / Sensitivity)
- (False Positive Rate)
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