GATE CE 2024 Set 1 — Question 47
Go beyond PYQs with Success TrackerAI-powered personalised practice and doubt support. Unlimited practice on eligible plans; AI usage limits apply.NAT+2 / -0MediumPoisson DistributionProbabilityEngineering Mathematics
Engineering Mathematics → Probability → Poisson Distribution
Last updated
Question
The return period of a large earthquake for a given region is 200 years. Assuming that earthquake occurrence follows Poisson’s distribution, the probability that it will be exceeded at least once in 50 years is ________________ % (rounded off to the nearest integer).
Correct answer
21 to 23
Solution
Given:
Return period () = 200 years
Time period () = 50 yearsThe average rate of occurrence () is given by:For a Poisson distribution, the mean number of occurrences () in time is:The probability of occurrences in time is given by the Poisson formula:The probability that the earthquake will be exceeded at least once () is:In percentage:Rounding off to the nearest integer, we get 22%. The official range is 21 to 23.
Return period () = 200 years
Time period () = 50 yearsThe average rate of occurrence () is given by:For a Poisson distribution, the mean number of occurrences () in time is:The probability of occurrences in time is given by the Poisson formula:The probability that the earthquake will be exceeded at least once () is:In percentage:Rounding off to the nearest integer, we get 22%. The official range is 21 to 23.
Continue learning with Success Tracker
A step still unclear? Work through it with support
Use Success Tracker to ask about the reasoning, then try another GATE CE question to check your understanding.
AI-powered practice· Unlimited practice on eligible plans
- PYQs with solutions
- Attempt available previous-year questions, then compare your reasoning with the worked solution. Coverage varies by stream.
- Practice that adapts
- Choose a topic, work on weaker areas and bookmark questions to revisit. Your attempts feed your progress tracking.
- AI doubt support
- Ask follow-up questions about a step or concept while practising, instead of stopping at the final answer.
Unlimited practice is available on eligible plans. Free practice and AI usage have limits; check the current plan allowances before choosing.
This page stays readable without an account. AI responses can be wrong; check them against the solution and source material.